Seattle's Housing Market Runs on a Schedule
What ten years of Seattle sales data tells us about timing and competition for buyers and sellers.
Hazy Rainier. Peri Erickson-Brown
If you've spent time watching the Seattle housing market, you may have noticed it has a rhythm.
In January, new buyers start pouring into the one or two listings that are ready for the market, and the bidding wars start. By spring, the listings are starting to pile up. In summer, things slow down, while everyone collectively agrees to enjoy the few months of sun before picking back up again in the fall. But by December it feels like everyone has collectively agreed to wait until January again. That's not just a feeling, it’s a pattern that shows up clearly and repeatedly in the listing data, year after year.
Housing market seasonality is not a novel concept, but Seattle's seasonality tends to run stronger than the national market. We're not just a little more active in early spring. We're dramatically more active. The difference between a February with 400 new listings and a May with 1,200 is the kind of spread that shapes what buyers experience and what sellers can expect.
When listings show up
New listings in the Seattle area follow a fairly reliable arc. Inventory starts the year low, builds steadily through late winter and into spring, peaks somewhere around May or June, then tapers off through summer and drops sharply in the fourth quarter. By November and December, the market is running on a fraction of what was available six months earlier.
This matters because inventory drives the competitive environment. When listings are scarce in January, a lot of the buyers are also just getting started too - BUT - and here’s the unexpected twist. The serious buyers who have been waiting for the last few months and have lived through the holidays in their “i’m ready to get out of here house” take these new, scarce listings seriously. We often see a surge of bidding in January.
When inventory floods in during May, there's more to choose from, but more buyers are shopping at the same time.
The price side - what demand does to it
Median sale prices follow their own seasonal curve, though it runs slightly behind the listing curve. Prices tend to bottom out in January and February, rise through spring as competition heats up, and peak somewhere around May or June. Then they soften gradually through the second half of the year.
The gap between winter lows and spring highs isn't trivial. In a typical year, the spread can be meaningful -- enough that the timing of a transaction can have a real effect on the outcome, for both buyers and sellers.
Why Seattle trends stronger than the national average
A few things amplify seasonality here.
The weather is a factor - it’s hard to tour homes after work when it gets dark at 5 in the winter. Spring, when flowers are popping off, everything looks AMAZING, but by summer, Seattle is off enjoying summer.
Seattle's workforce skews heavily toward tech, and tech compensation cycles (annual bonuses, vesting schedules, performance reviews) tend to concentrate buying power in spring.
And the local culture around home buying is competitive enough that people feel the pressure to move when the market moves, which becomes self-reinforcing. Buyers tend to feel safe buyer when others are buying. It’s not rational. But it’s real.
What disrupts the schedule.
The last ten years have not been uneventful. COVID upended the spring 2020 market entirely, then sent prices on a run that distorted 2021 and 2022. The Federal Reserve's rate increases in 2022 and 2023 compressed both supply and demand simultaneously -- the so-called "lock-in effect" where sellers with low rates chose not to list, even as buyers pulled back. More recently, uncertainty around AI and its effect on tech sector employment has introduced a new layer of hesitation for some buyers.
And even through all of that, the seasonal shape has held. The peaks and valleys shift, but they don't disappear. COVID didn't flatten the curve so much as delay it. Rate increases compressed activity but didn't eliminate the spring lift. The pattern is consistent, so it’s worth knowing, studying and also taking with a grain of salt.
What this means in practice
The right time to sell is always the right time for you - whether it’s driven by a job change, a family need or maybe you found a new home you love and need to sell your current one to make it work. No matter the season, a well prepared, well-priced home can be sold, with proper guidance from a seasoned agent. But there is good reason to take seasonally into consideration if you have flexibility in your timing. f you're a seller, listing in spring -- when both demand and prices are near their seasonal high -- tends to work in your favor. If you're a buyer, the math is more nuanced. Spring offers more choices, but also more competition and higher prices. Winter and early fall can offer real negotiating leverage, even if the selection is thinner.
None of this predicts what any given year will look like. The market responds to forces that no seasonal chart can anticipate -- interest rates, employment, global events, policy changes. But the seasonal rhythm is persistent enough that it's worth understanding before you decide when to make your move. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, and have time to plan in advance, let’s have a conversation early about how to use the seasonality of Seattle’s market to your advantage.
-Peri
Let’s work together
If you've made it this far, you probably care about doing this right. That's exactly the kind of buyer or seller I love working with.
I brought 20 years of business experience to real estate for one reason — I believed people deserved better guidance on one of the biggest financial decisions of their lives. The last four years have been about delivering on that, one client and one transaction at a time. My approach is built around education and empowerment, so you always know where you stand and what comes next, whether you're buying your first home or selling one you've loved for years.
If you're ready to approach your next move with this kind of clarity and intention, and you want someone who treats your transaction with genuine care and rigor, I'd love to be part of that process. You deserve to feel confident and informed at every step, not just at the end. Reach out and let's start the conversation.
